Seasonal Climate Outlook North Qld July report

Seasonal Climate Outlook for North Queensland (July report) now available

The Tropical North Queensland Drought Resilience Adoption and Innovation Hub has published its July report. This resource offers insights to support growers, advisors, and industry stakeholders with seasonal planning and risk management.

Prepared by Prof Roger Stone and Dr Christa Pudmenzky, the outlook reviews a range of established and emerging climate forecasting systems and highlights several key climate signals, including:

• El Niño conditions have become established, with rainfall probabilities now reduced across much of Queensland. However, above-average rainfall probabilities remain for parts of the Far North Tropical Coast, particularly north of Cairns, while rainfall probabilities for Mareeba are close to normal and lower for regions such as the Burdekin.
• The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remains in a consistently negative phase, reflecting the ongoing El Niño pattern. The next Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) event is expected between early and mid-August and may temporarily increase the likelihood of rainfall across Tropical North Queensland.
• Longer-term forecasting models continue to indicate below-average rainfall probabilities for much of Tropical North Queensland through the remainder of 2026 and into early 2027, with low rainfall probabilities forecast for the spring period across most of the region.

Read the full report

Growers and industry partners can review the full report here and consider how seasonal climate signals may inform planning for the months ahead.

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This article appears as part of the 17 July 2026 issue of Guacamole, our e-Newsletter.